New U.S. export controls on AI technology

On January 15, 2025 the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) introduced a new framework to regulate the global diffusion of the most advanced artificial intelligence (AI) technology. Specifically, BIS expanded existing export controls on advanced microchips and established new controls on highly advanced AI models.

National security rationale behind new export controls

BIS argues that the global proliferation of advanced AI models will affect U.S. national security and foreign policy interests in three ways:

1) Advanced AI models enhance the ability of “malicious actors” to threaten U.S. national security by having the potential to enable the development of weapons of mass destruction, support powerful offensive cyber operations, and assist in human rights violations, such as through mass surveillance. Exporting such models, or the means to produce them, to any destination outside the United States increases the risk of theft or diversion to countries of concern.

2) Harvesting the full economic and social benefits of advanced AI models will be impossible unless validated entities outside the United States are able to obtain large quantities of advanced microchips or advanced AI models themselves. Such entities may be able to discover beneficial applications that U.S. firms alone will not.

3) U.S. national security requires that the United States maintain technological leadership in the global AI industry. For that purpose, U.S. developers may need to build large clusters of advanced microchips outside the United States and store their models at facilities abroad.

Exceptions for certain allies and partners

For the reasons stated above, BIS established a license requirement for the sales of advanced microchips and certain AI models to any end user in any destinations, while permitting their diffusion to certain U.S. allies and partners without a license. Among those allies and partners are 10 member states of the European Union (Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden). All other EU member states, such as Poland, are excluded from the license exception. Those countries will see the number of AI chips capped at 50,000 meaning that they will not have access to the many microchips needed to build data centers for training AI models, unless they receive a special license. Going through that licensing process will require resources and time.

European pushback

In response, the European Union expressed concerns about the new regulatory framework, arguing that restricting access to advanced AI chip exports for selected EU member states and their companies may fracture the European common market. These concerns had been raised with the Biden administration before former President Joe Biden left office. The EU asserted that it was in the U.S. economic and security interest for the EU to procure advanced AI chips from the United States without limitations since the EU and the U.S. cooperate closely, particularly in the field of security. High-ranking EU officials stated that they will intent to engage constructively with the new Trump administration which could potentially see the January 15 rules as a bargaining chip in negotiations around European security issues or EU tech regulation.