Economic Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 11/2024

Germany

The decline in leading indicators for the German economy has been halted, but the indicators remain at a low level. After five months, the ifo business climate rose again slightly, both in terms of situation assessment and expectations. Both components of the sentix economic index also improved, but remain clearly in negative territory. The Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing rose to 43.0 points, although it remains well below the growth threshold of 50. The services index improved to 51.6 points. The Economic Sentiment indicator also recovered slightly. In contrast, the ZEW economic index fell again. According to toll statistics, truck mileage has recently increased again.

Eurozone

The leading indicators for the Eurozone are developing in different ways. The Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing improved by 1.0 to 46.0 points, but remains well below the growth threshold of 50 points. The services index rose only slightly by 0.2 points to 51.6 points. The economic sentiment indicator fell again for both the Eurozone and the EU as a whole, as did the ZEW economic expectations. In the sentix economic sentiment index, the current situation was rated slightly less poorly than in the previous month, but expectations have not improved any further. Both remain below the zero line. By contrast, the OECD-leading indicator continued its recovery and is slightly above its long-term average.

Global Economy

The leading indicators for the global economy are recovering, but remain at a low level overall. The OECD leading indicator improved again and is slightly above its long-term average. The sentix economic index also saw an increase in both the current situation assessment and expectations, with both components above the zero line. The Purchasing Managers' Index for global manufacturing also increased, but at 49.4 points it remains just below the growth threshold of 50 points. By contrast, the Bundesbank leading indicator for the global economy recently fell. The two freight indices – the Baltic Dry Index and the RWI Container Throughput Index – rose again last month.