Economic Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 10/2025

Germany

The leading indicators for the German economy do not indicate any sustainable economic improvement. The ifo business climate recently declined again because both the current assessment of the situation and expectations deteriorated. The Economic Sentiment Index also declined. The purchasing managers' index for industry also fell again and thus remains below the growth threshold of 50 points. The services index, on the other hand, was able to surpass it. The ZEW Economic Expectations Index was able to recover somewhat after its decline. The same applies to the sentix economic index, where expectations are again minimally in positive territory. According to toll statistics, truck mileage also increased slightly, but the trend remains only sideways.

Eurozone

Some leading indicators for the eurozone have recently recovered, but there are no signs of a sustainable improvement. The purchasing managers' index for industry even fell again and fell just below the growth threshold of 50 points. The services index, on the other hand, improved further to 51.4 points. The OECD leading indicator is clearly pointing upwards. The sentix economic index also rose again, with both the assessment of the situation and expectations improving. The Economic Sentiment indicator continues to move sideways in its trend. The ZEW Economic Expectations Index fell slightly from a high level.

Global Economy

The leading indicators for the global economy are trending upwards, albeit without much momentum. The Bundesbank's leading indicator for the global economy has recently improved significantly, while the OECD leading indicator for the G20 countries rose moderately. The sentix economic index also increased. Both the current assessment of the situation and expectations are in positive territory. The purchasing managers' index for industry, on the other hand, fell to 52.8 points, but remains above the growth threshold of 50 points. The index for the service sector remained almost unchanged, also above the growth threshold at 50.8 points. The RWI Container Throughput Index fell minimally at a high level, but world trade has not really followed suit so far. The Baltic Dry Index is pointing upwards again after a decline since the beginning of the month.