Economic Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 07/2025

Germany

The leading indicators for the German economy are trending moderately upwards, but most indicators are still at a low level. The ifo business climate rose for the sixth month in a row, which was mainly due to expectations. The current assessment of the situation remained more or less constant. In the sentix economic index both components improved, but the current assessment of the situation remains clearly negative on balance. The purchasing managers' indices also rose, but they remain below the growth threshold of 50 points. The ZEW Economic Expectations Index improved significantly. In contrast, the Economic Sentiment Index fell again somewhat. According to toll statistics, truck mileage also declined.

Eurozone

Most leading indicators for the eurozone also continued to improve. In the case of the sentix economic index, both the current assessment of the situation and expectations increased, but the latter are still in negative territory. The purchasing managers' indices also rose slightly, the services index is now exactly at the growth threshold of 50 points, the industry index just below. The OECD leading indicator also continued to rise, as did the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. Only the Economic Sentiment Indicator recently fell slightly again.

Global Economy

The leading indicators for the global economy have recently developed inconsistently. The OECD leading indicator for the G-20 countries continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace than in previous months. The sentix economic index also continued its upward movement – this applies to both the current assessment of the situation and expectations. The purchasing managers' index for industry rose by 0.8 points and, at 50.3 points, is just above the growth threshold of 50 points. At 51.9 points, the services index is also above this threshold, but it recently fell by 0.1 points. The Bundesbank's leading indicator for the global economy also declined. The same applies to the Baltic Dry Index. The RWI Container Throughput Index, on the other hand, was able to increase slightly.