Economic Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 03/2025

Germany

The leading indicators for the German economy are gradually recovering, but in most cases they are still at a low level. In the ifo business climate, both the index for the current situation and the expectations index improved. The same applies to the sentix economic index, where expectations even jumped into positive territory. The purchasing managers' index for industry improved to 48.3 points, but remains below the growth threshold of 50 points. The services index, on the other hand, fell for the second time in a row and is in neutral territory at 50.2 points. The Economic Sentiment indicator improved slightly from a low level, while the ZEW Indicator of Economic Expectations rose significantly and is clearly positive. Truck mileage, on the other hand, fell again according to toll statistics.

Eurozone

Most leading indicators for the Eurozone continue to recover, but in some cases they are still at a low level. The purchasing managers' index for industry rose to 48.7 points, but remains below the growth threshold of 50 points. The service performance index is just above this at 50.4 points, but fell slightly. The Economic Sentiment Index continued its recovery, but is still at a low level. In the sentix economic index, both the assessment of the current situation and expectations improved, which are now clearly in positive territory. The ZEW Economic Expectations Index also increased noticeably. The same applies to the OECD leading indicator, but at a slower pace.

Global Economy

Many leading indicators for the global economy are also continuing their recovery. Both the Bundesbank's leading indicator for the global economy and the OECD leading indicator for the G-20 improved. The purchasing managers' index for global industry rose minimally and is now exactly at the growth threshold of 50 points. The sentix economic index, on the other hand, declined, which was due to both the assessment of the current situation and expectations; however, both components remain positive on balance. The two freight indices – the Baltic Dry Index and the RWI Container Throughput Index – have recently risen again.