Economic Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 01/2025

Germany

The leading indicators for the German economy continue to show no recovery. The ifo business climate continued to decline, which was due to further deterioration in expectations. The sentix economic index also fell slightly due to poorer expectations. The Economic Sentiment indicator also deteriorated. The same applies to the ZEW Economic Expectations Index. In contrast, the purchasing managers' indices improved somewhat. The industrial index recovered by 1.6 points to 44.1 points, but remains well below the growth threshold of 50 points. The services index rose from 51.2 to 52.5 points. According to toll statistics, truck mileage also recorded a slight increase.

Eurozone

The leading indicators for the Eurozone are developing differently. The purchasing managers' index for industry rose by 1.0 points to 46.1 points, but remains well below the growth threshold of 50 points. The services index is above this, but fell slightly by 0.2 points to 51.6 points. Economic sentiment has recently declined noticeably. The sentix economic index fell slightly, which was due to a poorer assessment of the current situation. Expectations, on the other hand, rose slightly. The ZEW Economic Expectations Index also improved slightly. The OECD leading indicator continued its recovery as well.

Global Economy

Most leading indicators for the global economy are continuing their recovery. Both the Bundesbank's leading indicator for the global economy and the OECD leading indicator improved. The purchasing managers' index for global industry also continued to rise, but at 49.4 points it still remains just below the growth threshold of 50 points. The sentix economic index, on the other hand, fell minimally, but both the assessment of the current situation and expectations are in positive territory. Of the freight indices, the Baltic Dry Index continued to decline, while the RWI Container Throughput Index recovered somewhat.